Vancouver Island Rail Retrofit Project: A Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Analysis

 

Yash Patel
Integrated Travel Research Initiative
October 2025

 

This study presents a comprehensive cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of retrofitting Vancouver Island’s 225-kilometer dormant rail corridor with battery-electric multiple units (BEMUs). Over fourteen weeks, a multi-layered Excel-based model was developed to assess the project’s financial, environmental, and social feasibility. The deterministic framework established in the early phases calculated core cashflows, net present value (NPV), and benefit–cost ratio (BCR). Subsequent iterations integrated emissions modeling based on Transport Canada (2023) and BC Hydro (2022), followed by an Accessibility Equity Index (AEI) to measure rural and Indigenous access benefits. Week 13 introduced standardized evaluation metrics uniting cost, emission, and equity indicators. The final probabilistic layer (Week 14) applied sensitivity and distributional analysis to quantify uncertainty in ridership, cost, and policy parameters. Results show an expanded mean BCR of 1.18 and NPV of CAD 12.6 million, suggesting that electrification of the corridor is economically feasible and socially equitable under CleanBC 2030 policy targets

 

Link to Study