Feasibility Study: Vancouver Island Rail Corridor Ridership Forecast

Shivani Chauhan

November 2025

 

The objective of this study was to develop a defensible, data-driven ridership forecast for a proposed passenger rail service on Vancouver Island. Moving beyond simple population trend analysis, this project employed a calibrated Direct Demand Model (DDM) integrated with a Mode Choice analysis to reflect real-world travel behavior and competition from private automobiles.

 

Key Findings:

● Baseline Forecast: The model predicts a stabilized annual ridership of 1.86 million passengers.

● Network Structure: The system functions as a "Two-Hub" network, with 97% of demand anchored to the Victoria Hub (commuting and intercity travel) and a smaller but strategically vital Nanaimo Hub (regional connectivity).

● Risk & Opportunity: Sensitivity analysis indicates the project is resilient. Even in a "High EV Adoption" scenario (low driving costs), ridership remains above 1.2 million. Conversely, increasing train speeds by 20% yields a 33% ridership gain, creating a potential market of 2.5 million annual passengers.

 

Link to Study