Assessing the Viability of the Vancouver Island E&N Rail Corridor: A Data-Driven Ridership and Financial Analysis

 

1st Shivani Chauhan
Integrated Travel
Arizona, United States
schauh29@asu.edu

 

2nd Dharmil Rajesh Gada
Integrated Travel
Arizona, United States
dgada1@asu.edu

 

This report examines the practicality, affordability, and long-term community value of restoring passenger rail service along the Island Corridor between Victoria and Courtenay.


Moving beyond abstract population statistics, this study employs a ’behavior-first’ approach to understand how Islanders actually
travel, weighing the real-world factors of time, cost, and frequency. The analysis projects a credible, stabilized demand
of 1.55 million passenger trips annually by 2040, primarily driven by the urgent need for reliable commuting options in the Victoria–Langford–Nanaimo corridor.

 

Financially, the study finds that a modern rail service is expected to operate with a recovery ratio of roughly 39%. To address the
remaining operational gap, this report proposes a framework of government-controlled incentivization tools, specifically Land
Value Capture (LVC) districts and Indigenous Equity Trusts. These mechanisms allow the government to ’dial’ funding support
by capturing real estate value uplift and transforming operational costs into equity dividends for First Nations partners.
The primary challenge remains the upfront capital investment required to modernize the tracks and, crucially, to honor our
commitments to the First Nations whose land the corridor traverses. When viewed not just as a transportation project,
but as generational community infrastructure, comparable to our highways, hospitals, and water systems, the Island Corridor
represents a prudent investment in a connected, resilient, and sustainable future for Vancouver Island.


Index Terms:

 

  • Ridership forecasting
  • Gravity model
  • Direct demand modeling
  • Transportation planning