CBA OF SUSTAINABLE PROPULSION OPTIONS FOR VANCOUVER ISLAND’S PASSENGER RAIL CORRIDOR
(DIESEL, HYBRID, HYDROGEN)

 

 

 

Tanay Pravin Dixit

Arizona State University

Integrated Travel Research and Development

November 2025

 

 

 

Vancouver Island’s 225 km rail corridor presents an opportunity to reintroduce passenger service with modern, sustainable propulsion. This report evaluates three options – conventional diesel, diesel-hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell trains – comparing capital costs, operating costs, emissions, and lifecycle economics over 30 years. Prior cost modeling is integrated with fleet scaling scenarios (6, 12, 20 trains) to project capital expenditure (CAPEX) needs for rolling stock and infrastructure. A detailed emissions analysis quantifies well-to-wheel CO₂, NOₓ, and PM for each technology per km and per year, monetizing externalities via social carbon costs and health impact valuations. We then synthesize total lifecycle costs (TCO) combining CAPEX and operational expenditure (OPEX), including scenario analysis for fuel prices, maintenance schedules, and technology improvements. Finally, phased adoption strategies (diesel → hybrid → hydrogen) are presented with investment timing and infrastructure staging aligned to CleanBC 2030 and Canada’s 2050 net-zero goals. The analysis finds that diesel traction offers lowest upfront cost but highest emissions; hydrogen trains achieve zero onboard emissions and deep GHG reductions, though with high initial investment; and hybrid diesel-battery systems provide an interim solution with moderate cost and emissions benefits. A phased approach is recommended: near-term diesel/hybrid service to kickstart operations and build ridership, followed by transition to hydrogen propulsion as technology matures and costs decline, positioning the Island rail for long-term sustainability and policy alignment.

 

Link to Study